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Six Flags Entertainment Corporation/NEW (FUN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 headline: revenue fell 2% YoY to $1.32B as admissions per-capita declined on promotions and mix, but Adjusted EBITDA was essentially flat at $555M; GAAP EPS printed a large loss (-$11.77) due to a $1.5B non-cash impairment, masking stable underlying park profitability .
  • Against S&P Global consensus, revenue modestly missed while S&P “Primary EPS” materially beat; note GAAP EPS was negative given the impairment—this gap reflects differing EPS definitions and non-cash charges (see Estimates Context) .
  • Management cut FY25 Adjusted EBITDA guidance again to $780–$805M (from $860–$910M in Aug and $1.08–$1.12B in Feb), citing a weak September, tougher October comp, and earlier-in-year ad spend shift; season pass pricing is up, units modestly down, and October attendance -11% YoY but +7% vs 2023 two-year stack .
  • Portfolio divergence deepened: ~70% of YTD park-level EBITDA from “outperformers” versus underperformers under review for capital rationing or divestiture; 2026 focus includes pricing/product recalibration, unified ticketing/website, and ERP go-live; activist engagement with JANA/Travis Kelce introduces brand/catalyst optionality .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Adjusted EBITDA resilience: Q3 Adjusted EBITDA of $554.7M was down just $3.3M YoY despite a 2% revenue decline; Modified EBITDA margin improved year-on-year to 44.0% .
    • Strong cohorts: Outperforming parks (≈70% of YTD park-level EBITDA) delivered higher attendance (+5% in Q3) and double-digit Modified EBITDA growth; several parks are on pace for record/near-record results .
    • Early 2026 commercial indicators: 2026 season pass sales +3% in dollars with +5% pricing (units -3%); in-park product spend per guest edged up (+2%), sponsorships supported +6% out-of-park revenue .

    Selected management quotes

    • “Several parks … are on pace to deliver record or near-record results, validating our sound investments and strong consumer demand.” — CEO Richard Zimmerman .
    • “We are revising our full-year outlook… It also creates a more stable foundation as we refocus our efforts and reposition for the 2026 season.” — CFO Brian Witherow .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Demand moderation and mix: September attendance fell ~5% and Q3 admissions per-capita fell 8% (to $31.48) on promotions and higher season-pass mix; net revenues declined 2% YoY .
    • October underperformed a very tough comp: attendance -11% YoY (vs a record October last year), though +7% vs 2023; pullback in Q3 ad spend also weighed on demand .
    • Large GAAP loss: $1.5B impairment to goodwill/intangibles drove Q3 GAAP EPS to -$11.77; this non-cash hit followed performance vs expectations and sustained share price weakness .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Profitability

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Revenues ($USD Millions)1,348.4 930.4 1,317.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)558.0 242.6 554.7
Modified EBITDA Margin (%)43.2% —44.0%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)1.10 -0.99 -11.77

Notes: “—” = not disclosed in source for that period.

Operational Revenue Mix (Segment-Like View)

($USD Thousands)Q3 2024Q3 2025
In-park admissions revenues716,483 664,480
In-park product revenues568,392 582,626
Out-of-park revenues102,265 108,135
Concessionaire remittance(38,755) (37,488)
Net revenues1,348,385 1,317,753

KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025
Attendance (000s)20,971 21,109
In-park per capita ($)61.27 59.08
Admissions per capita ($)34.16 31.48
In-park product per capita ($)27.10 27.60
Operating days2,585 2,573
Deferred revenues ($USD Millions)359 365
Net debt ($USD Millions)4,716.3 4,980.1
Total liquidity ($USD Millions)—763

Versus S&P Global Consensus (quarterly)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Estimate ($USD)232.20M*982.04M*1,333.46M*
Revenue Actual ($USD)202.06M 930.39M 1,317.75M
Primary EPS Estimate ($)-2.4571*0.7794*2.0854*
Primary EPS Actual ($)-2.0391*-0.6988*3.0699*

Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global. Actual GAAP diluted EPS in Q3 2025 was -$11.77 due to a $1.5B non-cash impairment .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$1.08–$1.12B (Feb-27-2025) $780–$805M (Nov-7-2025) Lowered
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$860–$910M (Aug-6-2025) $780–$805M (Nov-7-2025) Lowered
Operational assumptionQ4 2025Remove winter events at 4 parks → ~500k visits reduction (Aug-6 commentary) Affirmed in Q&A framing apples-to-apples: flat to down mid-single-digit attendance; sensitivity ≈$3M EBITDA per 1% attendance change for Nov–Dec Clarified outlook methodology

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025, Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Weather/macro impact on demandQ1: calendar/holiday timing; early season weather; season pass sales steps; integration ramp . Q2: severe weather in May–Jun; active pass base down; July rebound .September moderated; October -11% YoY vs record 2024 but +7% vs 2023; tough comp plus lower Q3 ad spend .Normalizing vs tough comp; demand sensitive to messaging/mix.
Pricing, promotions, and per-capsQ2: promotions increased; in-park per-cap down ~4% in July window .Admissions per-cap -8% (mix/promo); mgmt admits some “moved too fast/far” on harmonization; will recalibrate in 2026 .Recalibration coming; value proposition over pure price.
Portfolio bifurcation (core vs non-core)Q2: evaluating divestitures of non-core assets; deleveraging priority .≈70% of YTD park-level EBITDA from outperformers; underperformers may be classed non-core if ROI lags; monetization on table .Sharper capital rationing; potential asset sales.
Integration/tech stackQ1–Q2: synergy capture on track .New unified website live; portfolio-wide unified ticketing by YE; ERP migration in early 2026 .Foundational systems enabling CRM/pricing execution.
CapEx outlookQ2: elongated lead times; “skinny” 2026 program by ~$100M vs prior thoughts .2026 CapEx ≈$400M; mix steady; shorter-lead projects can flex .Focused deployment, longer-lead attractions.
Activism/brand catalyst—JANA/Travis Kelce stake (~9%) and branding dialogue; potential to modernize brand engagement .Incremental marketing/brand optionality.

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and performance dispersion: “This subset of Six Flags’ portfolio, which represents approximately 70% of park-level Modified EBITDA… are on pace to deliver record or near-record results…” — CEO Richard Zimmerman .
  • Reset and 2026 focus: “We are revising our full-year outlook… and reposition for the 2026 season.” — CFO Brian Witherow .
  • Pricing/messaging introspection: “We may have moved a little too fast and a little too far… trying to harmonize… season pass [structure].” — CFO Brian Witherow .
  • Systems enablement: “By year-end, all parks will be operating on a unified ticketing platform… ERP in early 2026.” — CFO Brian Witherow .
  • Activist engagement: “We have been in active conversations [with JANA/Kelce]… to work together on a broader branding relationship.” — CEO Richard Zimmerman .

Q&A Highlights

  • Underperforming parks and non-core decisions: Management will move with urgency; low-hanging non-core assets identified; ongoing board-backed review with willingness to pivot park classifications if returns don’t materialize .
  • Q4 attendance and sensitivity: Apples-to-apples assumption flat to down mid-single digits; each 1% attendance shift in Nov–Dec ≈$3M EBITDA; ~500k attendance removed due to unplugged winter events overlays .
  • 2026 CapEx: Still ~ $400M; longer-lead projects steady; smaller projects can be reallocated but no major deviation planned .
  • Pricing/value takeaways: Consumer is more value-conscious; dynamic pricing didn’t work in every case—focus shifts to value proposition and product structure/messaging by market .
  • Season pass: Dollars +3% on +5% price/-3% units; target marketing/product structure adjustments for the spring 2026 window .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $1.318B actual vs $1.333B estimate (miss); S&P Primary EPS 3.07 actual vs 2.09 estimate (beat). Note: company-reported GAAP diluted EPS was -$11.77 due to a $1.5B non-cash impairment, which is not reflected in S&P Primary EPS; this explains the apparent “beat” despite negative GAAP EPS .
  • Trend: Q1 revenue and Primary EPS missed/beat respectively; Q2 both missed on Primary EPS and revenue; Q3 mixed (rev miss, EPS beat). Given lowered FY guide, Street models likely reset lower on revenue/EBITDA and shift mix toward higher promo/season-pass weighting. Values marked with * in the table were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Underlying operations stable in Q3 despite demand headwinds: Adjusted EBITDA nearly flat YoY and margin improved; GAAP optics clouded by a non-cash impairment .
  • FY25 guidance reset likely de-risks near term; watch for 2026 playbook: pricing/product recalibration, park-level capital rationing, and systems-enabled CRM/ticketing should drive better yield/attendance balance next season .
  • Portfolio pruning is a real option: management flagged non-core underperformers; asset sales would support deleveraging alongside focus on top-cohort parks .
  • Demand sensitivity remains high: attendance responds to comp/weather/ad-spend pacing; near-term EBITDA sensitivity in Nov–Dec is ~$3M per 1% attendance—monitor weekly trends and marketing cadence .
  • Season pass strategy is mixed but progressing: pricing up, units modestly down; spring 2026 is the key inflection window as unified ticketing/CRM and revised product architecture come online .
  • Brand/activism optionality could assist demand narrative in 2026: JANA/Kelce engagement opens branding/marketing levers beyond the current plan .
  • Trading lens: Expect estimate cuts to FY25 and a focus on 2026 recovery drivers (pricing architecture, cohort allocation, CapEx mix, and CRM execution). Near-term catalysts include asset sale updates and early 2026 pass momentum reads .